feat(skill): add timesfm-forecasting skill for time series forecasting

Add comprehensive TimesFM forecasting skill with mandatory system
preflight checks (RAM/GPU/disk), end-to-end CSV forecasting script,
full API reference, data preparation guide, and hardware requirements
documentation. Supports TimesFM 2.5 (200M), 2.0 (500M), and legacy
v1.0 with automatic batch size recommendations based on hardware.
This commit is contained in:
Clayton Young
2026-02-21 14:01:23 -05:00
parent a0f81aeaa3
commit 98670bcf47
6 changed files with 2126 additions and 0 deletions

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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""TimesFM System Requirements Preflight Checker.
MANDATORY: Run this script before loading TimesFM for the first time.
It checks RAM, GPU/VRAM, disk space, Python version, and package
installation so the agent never crashes a user's machine.
Usage:
python check_system.py
python check_system.py --model v2.5 # default
python check_system.py --model v2.0 # archived 500M model
python check_system.py --model v1.0 # archived 200M model
python check_system.py --json # machine-readable output
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
import os
import platform
import shutil
import struct
import sys
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Model requirement profiles
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
MODEL_PROFILES: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] = {
"v2.5": {
"name": "TimesFM 2.5 (200M)",
"params": "200M",
"min_ram_gb": 2.0,
"recommended_ram_gb": 4.0,
"min_vram_gb": 2.0,
"recommended_vram_gb": 4.0,
"disk_gb": 2.0, # model weights + overhead
"hf_repo": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch",
},
"v2.0": {
"name": "TimesFM 2.0 (500M)",
"params": "500M",
"min_ram_gb": 8.0,
"recommended_ram_gb": 16.0,
"min_vram_gb": 4.0,
"recommended_vram_gb": 8.0,
"disk_gb": 4.0,
"hf_repo": "google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch",
},
"v1.0": {
"name": "TimesFM 1.0 (200M)",
"params": "200M",
"min_ram_gb": 4.0,
"recommended_ram_gb": 8.0,
"min_vram_gb": 2.0,
"recommended_vram_gb": 4.0,
"disk_gb": 2.0,
"hf_repo": "google/timesfm-1.0-200m-pytorch",
},
}
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Result dataclass
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
@dataclass
class CheckResult:
name: str
status: str # "pass", "warn", "fail"
detail: str
value: str = ""
@property
def icon(self) -> str:
return {"pass": "", "warn": "⚠️", "fail": "🛑"}.get(self.status, "")
def __str__(self) -> str:
return f"[{self.name:<10}] {self.value:<40} {self.icon} {self.status.upper()}"
@dataclass
class SystemReport:
model: str
checks: list[CheckResult] = field(default_factory=list)
verdict: str = ""
verdict_detail: str = ""
recommended_batch_size: int = 1
mode: str = "cpu" # "cpu", "gpu", "mps"
@property
def passed(self) -> bool:
return all(c.status != "fail" for c in self.checks)
def to_dict(self) -> dict[str, Any]:
return {
"model": self.model,
"passed": self.passed,
"mode": self.mode,
"recommended_batch_size": self.recommended_batch_size,
"verdict": self.verdict,
"verdict_detail": self.verdict_detail,
"checks": [
{
"name": c.name,
"status": c.status,
"detail": c.detail,
"value": c.value,
}
for c in self.checks
],
}
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Individual checks
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _get_total_ram_gb() -> float:
"""Return total physical RAM in GB, cross-platform."""
try:
if sys.platform == "linux":
with open("/proc/meminfo") as f:
for line in f:
if line.startswith("MemTotal"):
return int(line.split()[1]) / (1024 * 1024)
elif sys.platform == "darwin":
import subprocess
result = subprocess.run(
["sysctl", "-n", "hw.memsize"],
capture_output=True,
text=True,
check=True,
)
return int(result.stdout.strip()) / (1024**3)
elif sys.platform == "win32":
import ctypes
kernel32 = ctypes.windll.kernel32 # type: ignore[attr-defined]
class MEMORYSTATUSEX(ctypes.Structure):
_fields_ = [
("dwLength", ctypes.c_ulong),
("dwMemoryLoad", ctypes.c_ulong),
("ullTotalPhys", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullAvailPhys", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullTotalPageFile", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullAvailPageFile", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullTotalVirtual", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullAvailVirtual", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("sullAvailExtendedVirtual", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
]
stat = MEMORYSTATUSEX()
stat.dwLength = ctypes.sizeof(stat)
kernel32.GlobalMemoryStatusEx(ctypes.byref(stat))
return stat.ullTotalPhys / (1024**3)
except Exception:
pass
# Fallback: use struct to estimate (unreliable)
return struct.calcsize("P") * 8 / 8 # placeholder
def _get_available_ram_gb() -> float:
"""Return available RAM in GB."""
try:
if sys.platform == "linux":
with open("/proc/meminfo") as f:
for line in f:
if line.startswith("MemAvailable"):
return int(line.split()[1]) / (1024 * 1024)
elif sys.platform == "darwin":
import subprocess
# Use vm_stat for available memory on macOS
result = subprocess.run(
["vm_stat"], capture_output=True, text=True, check=True
)
free = 0
page_size = 4096
for line in result.stdout.split("\n"):
if "Pages free" in line or "Pages inactive" in line:
val = line.split(":")[1].strip().rstrip(".")
free += int(val) * page_size
return free / (1024**3)
elif sys.platform == "win32":
import ctypes
kernel32 = ctypes.windll.kernel32 # type: ignore[attr-defined]
class MEMORYSTATUSEX(ctypes.Structure):
_fields_ = [
("dwLength", ctypes.c_ulong),
("dwMemoryLoad", ctypes.c_ulong),
("ullTotalPhys", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullAvailPhys", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullTotalPageFile", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullAvailPageFile", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullTotalVirtual", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("ullAvailVirtual", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
("sullAvailExtendedVirtual", ctypes.c_ulonglong),
]
stat = MEMORYSTATUSEX()
stat.dwLength = ctypes.sizeof(stat)
kernel32.GlobalMemoryStatusEx(ctypes.byref(stat))
return stat.ullAvailPhys / (1024**3)
except Exception:
pass
return 0.0
def check_ram(profile: dict[str, Any]) -> CheckResult:
"""Check if system has enough RAM."""
total = _get_total_ram_gb()
available = _get_available_ram_gb()
min_ram = profile["min_ram_gb"]
rec_ram = profile["recommended_ram_gb"]
value = f"Total: {total:.1f} GB | Available: {available:.1f} GB"
if total < min_ram:
return CheckResult(
name="RAM",
status="fail",
detail=(
f"System has {total:.1f} GB RAM but {profile['name']} requires "
f"at least {min_ram:.0f} GB. The model will likely fail to load "
f"or cause the system to swap heavily and become unresponsive."
),
value=value,
)
elif total < rec_ram:
return CheckResult(
name="RAM",
status="warn",
detail=(
f"System has {total:.1f} GB RAM. {profile['name']} recommends "
f"{rec_ram:.0f} GB. It may work with small batch sizes but could "
f"be tight. Use per_core_batch_size=4 or lower."
),
value=value,
)
else:
return CheckResult(
name="RAM",
status="pass",
detail=f"System has {total:.1f} GB RAM, meets {rec_ram:.0f} GB recommendation.",
value=value,
)
def check_gpu() -> CheckResult:
"""Check GPU availability and VRAM."""
# Try CUDA first
try:
import torch
if torch.cuda.is_available():
name = torch.cuda.get_device_name(0)
vram = torch.cuda.get_device_properties(0).total_memory / (1024**3)
return CheckResult(
name="GPU",
status="pass",
detail=f"{name} with {vram:.1f} GB VRAM detected.",
value=f"{name} | VRAM: {vram:.1f} GB",
)
elif hasattr(torch.backends, "mps") and torch.backends.mps.is_available():
return CheckResult(
name="GPU",
status="pass",
detail="Apple Silicon MPS backend available. Uses unified memory.",
value="Apple Silicon MPS",
)
else:
return CheckResult(
name="GPU",
status="warn",
detail=(
"No GPU detected. TimesFM will run on CPU (slower but functional). "
"Install CUDA-enabled PyTorch for GPU acceleration."
),
value="None (CPU only)",
)
except ImportError:
return CheckResult(
name="GPU",
status="warn",
detail="PyTorch not installed — cannot check GPU. Install torch first.",
value="Unknown (torch not installed)",
)
def check_disk(profile: dict[str, Any]) -> CheckResult:
"""Check available disk space for model download."""
# Check HuggingFace cache dir or home dir
hf_cache = os.environ.get("HF_HOME", os.path.expanduser("~/.cache/huggingface"))
cache_dir = Path(hf_cache)
check_dir = cache_dir if cache_dir.exists() else Path.home()
usage = shutil.disk_usage(str(check_dir))
free_gb = usage.free / (1024**3)
required = profile["disk_gb"]
value = f"Free: {free_gb:.1f} GB (in {check_dir})"
if free_gb < required:
return CheckResult(
name="Disk",
status="fail",
detail=(
f"Only {free_gb:.1f} GB free in {check_dir}. "
f"Need at least {required:.0f} GB for model weights. "
f"Free up space or set HF_HOME to a larger volume."
),
value=value,
)
else:
return CheckResult(
name="Disk",
status="pass",
detail=f"{free_gb:.1f} GB available, exceeds {required:.0f} GB requirement.",
value=value,
)
def check_python() -> CheckResult:
"""Check Python version >= 3.10."""
version = sys.version.split()[0]
major, minor = sys.version_info[:2]
if (major, minor) < (3, 10):
return CheckResult(
name="Python",
status="fail",
detail=f"Python {version} detected. TimesFM requires Python >= 3.10.",
value=version,
)
else:
return CheckResult(
name="Python",
status="pass",
detail=f"Python {version} meets >= 3.10 requirement.",
value=version,
)
def check_package(pkg_name: str, import_name: str | None = None) -> CheckResult:
"""Check if a Python package is installed."""
import_name = import_name or pkg_name
try:
mod = __import__(import_name)
version = getattr(mod, "__version__", "unknown")
return CheckResult(
name=pkg_name,
status="pass",
detail=f"{pkg_name} {version} is installed.",
value=f"Installed ({version})",
)
except ImportError:
return CheckResult(
name=pkg_name,
status="warn",
detail=f"{pkg_name} is not installed. Run: uv pip install {pkg_name}",
value="Not installed",
)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Batch size recommendation
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def recommend_batch_size(report: SystemReport) -> int:
"""Recommend per_core_batch_size based on available resources."""
total_ram = _get_total_ram_gb()
# Check if GPU is available
gpu_check = next((c for c in report.checks if c.name == "GPU"), None)
if gpu_check and gpu_check.status == "pass" and "VRAM" in gpu_check.value:
# Extract VRAM
try:
vram_str = gpu_check.value.split("VRAM:")[1].strip().split()[0]
vram = float(vram_str)
if vram >= 24:
return 256
elif vram >= 16:
return 128
elif vram >= 8:
return 64
elif vram >= 4:
return 32
else:
return 16
except (ValueError, IndexError):
return 32
elif gpu_check and "MPS" in gpu_check.value:
# Apple Silicon — use unified memory heuristic
if total_ram >= 32:
return 64
elif total_ram >= 16:
return 32
else:
return 16
else:
# CPU only
if total_ram >= 32:
return 64
elif total_ram >= 16:
return 32
elif total_ram >= 8:
return 8
else:
return 4
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Main
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def run_checks(model_version: str = "v2.5") -> SystemReport:
"""Run all system checks and return a report."""
profile = MODEL_PROFILES[model_version]
report = SystemReport(model=profile["name"])
# Run checks
report.checks.append(check_ram(profile))
report.checks.append(check_gpu())
report.checks.append(check_disk(profile))
report.checks.append(check_python())
report.checks.append(check_package("timesfm"))
report.checks.append(check_package("torch"))
# Determine mode
gpu_check = next((c for c in report.checks if c.name == "GPU"), None)
if gpu_check and gpu_check.status == "pass":
if "MPS" in gpu_check.value:
report.mode = "mps"
else:
report.mode = "gpu"
else:
report.mode = "cpu"
# Batch size
report.recommended_batch_size = recommend_batch_size(report)
# Verdict
if report.passed:
report.verdict = (
f"✅ System is ready for {profile['name']} ({report.mode.upper()} mode)"
)
report.verdict_detail = (
f"Recommended: per_core_batch_size={report.recommended_batch_size}"
)
else:
failed = [c for c in report.checks if c.status == "fail"]
report.verdict = f"🛑 System does NOT meet requirements for {profile['name']}"
report.verdict_detail = "; ".join(c.detail for c in failed)
return report
def print_report(report: SystemReport) -> None:
"""Print a human-readable report to stdout."""
print(f"\n{'=' * 50}")
print(f" TimesFM System Requirements Check")
print(f" Model: {report.model}")
print(f"{'=' * 50}\n")
for check in report.checks:
print(f" {check}")
print()
print(f" VERDICT: {report.verdict}")
if report.verdict_detail:
print(f" {report.verdict_detail}")
print()
def main() -> None:
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
description="Check system requirements for TimesFM."
)
parser.add_argument(
"--model",
choices=list(MODEL_PROFILES.keys()),
default="v2.5",
help="Model version to check requirements for (default: v2.5)",
)
parser.add_argument(
"--json",
action="store_true",
help="Output results as JSON (machine-readable)",
)
args = parser.parse_args()
report = run_checks(args.model)
if args.json:
print(json.dumps(report.to_dict(), indent=2))
else:
print_report(report)
# Exit with non-zero if any check failed
sys.exit(0 if report.passed else 1)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()

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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""End-to-end CSV forecasting with TimesFM.
Loads a CSV, runs the system preflight check, loads TimesFM, forecasts
the requested columns, and writes results to a new CSV or JSON.
Usage:
python forecast_csv.py input.csv --horizon 24
python forecast_csv.py input.csv --horizon 12 --date-col date --value-cols sales,revenue
python forecast_csv.py input.csv --horizon 52 --output forecasts.csv
python forecast_csv.py input.csv --horizon 30 --output forecasts.json --format json
The script automatically:
1. Runs the system preflight check (exits if it fails).
2. Loads TimesFM 2.5 from Hugging Face.
3. Reads the CSV and identifies time series columns.
4. Forecasts each series with prediction intervals.
5. Writes results to the specified output file.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
def run_preflight() -> dict:
"""Run the system preflight check and return the report."""
# Import the check_system module from the same directory
script_dir = Path(__file__).parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(script_dir))
from check_system import run_checks
report = run_checks("v2.5")
if not report.passed:
print("\n🛑 System check FAILED. Cannot proceed with forecasting.")
print(f" {report.verdict_detail}")
print("\nRun 'python scripts/check_system.py' for details.")
sys.exit(1)
return report.to_dict()
def load_model(batch_size: int = 32):
"""Load and compile the TimesFM model."""
import torch
import timesfm
torch.set_float32_matmul_precision("high")
print("Loading TimesFM 2.5 from Hugging Face...")
model = timesfm.TimesFM_2p5_200M_torch.from_pretrained(
"google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch"
)
print(f"Compiling with per_core_batch_size={batch_size}...")
model.compile(
timesfm.ForecastConfig(
max_context=1024,
max_horizon=256,
normalize_inputs=True,
use_continuous_quantile_head=True,
force_flip_invariance=True,
infer_is_positive=True,
fix_quantile_crossing=True,
per_core_batch_size=batch_size,
)
)
return model
def load_csv(
path: str,
date_col: str | None = None,
value_cols: list[str] | None = None,
) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, list[str], str | None]:
"""Load CSV and identify time series columns.
Returns:
(dataframe, value_column_names, date_column_name_or_none)
"""
df = pd.read_csv(path)
# Identify date column
if date_col and date_col in df.columns:
df[date_col] = pd.to_datetime(df[date_col])
elif date_col:
print(f"⚠️ Date column '{date_col}' not found. Available: {list(df.columns)}")
date_col = None
# Identify value columns
if value_cols:
missing = [c for c in value_cols if c not in df.columns]
if missing:
print(f"⚠️ Columns not found: {missing}. Available: {list(df.columns)}")
value_cols = [c for c in value_cols if c in df.columns]
else:
# Auto-detect numeric columns (exclude date)
numeric_cols = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns.tolist()
if date_col and date_col in numeric_cols:
numeric_cols.remove(date_col)
value_cols = numeric_cols
if not value_cols:
print("🛑 No numeric columns found to forecast.")
sys.exit(1)
print(f"Found {len(value_cols)} series to forecast: {value_cols}")
return df, value_cols, date_col
def forecast_series(
model, df: pd.DataFrame, value_cols: list[str], horizon: int
) -> dict[str, dict]:
"""Forecast all series and return results dict."""
inputs = []
for col in value_cols:
values = df[col].dropna().values.astype(np.float32)
inputs.append(values)
print(f"Forecasting {len(inputs)} series with horizon={horizon}...")
point, quantiles = model.forecast(horizon=horizon, inputs=inputs)
results = {}
for i, col in enumerate(value_cols):
results[col] = {
"forecast": point[i].tolist(),
"lower_90": quantiles[i, :, 1].tolist(), # 10th percentile
"lower_80": quantiles[i, :, 2].tolist(), # 20th percentile
"median": quantiles[i, :, 5].tolist(), # 50th percentile
"upper_80": quantiles[i, :, 8].tolist(), # 80th percentile
"upper_90": quantiles[i, :, 9].tolist(), # 90th percentile
}
return results
def write_csv_output(
results: dict[str, dict],
output_path: str,
df: pd.DataFrame,
date_col: str | None,
horizon: int,
) -> None:
"""Write forecast results to CSV."""
rows = []
for col, data in results.items():
# Try to generate future dates
future_dates = list(range(1, horizon + 1))
if date_col and date_col in df.columns:
try:
last_date = df[date_col].dropna().iloc[-1]
freq = pd.infer_freq(df[date_col].dropna())
if freq:
future_dates = pd.date_range(
last_date, periods=horizon + 1, freq=freq
)[1:].tolist()
except Exception:
pass
for h in range(horizon):
row = {
"series": col,
"step": h + 1,
"forecast": data["forecast"][h],
"lower_90": data["lower_90"][h],
"lower_80": data["lower_80"][h],
"median": data["median"][h],
"upper_80": data["upper_80"][h],
"upper_90": data["upper_90"][h],
}
if isinstance(future_dates[0], (pd.Timestamp,)):
row["date"] = future_dates[h]
rows.append(row)
out_df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
out_df.to_csv(output_path, index=False)
print(f"✅ Wrote {len(rows)} forecast rows to {output_path}")
def write_json_output(results: dict[str, dict], output_path: str) -> None:
"""Write forecast results to JSON."""
with open(output_path, "w") as f:
json.dump(results, f, indent=2)
print(f"✅ Wrote forecasts for {len(results)} series to {output_path}")
def main() -> None:
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
description="Forecast time series from CSV using TimesFM."
)
parser.add_argument("input", help="Path to input CSV file")
parser.add_argument(
"--horizon", type=int, required=True, help="Number of steps to forecast"
)
parser.add_argument("--date-col", help="Name of the date/time column")
parser.add_argument(
"--value-cols",
help="Comma-separated list of value columns to forecast (default: all numeric)",
)
parser.add_argument(
"--output",
default="forecasts.csv",
help="Output file path (default: forecasts.csv)",
)
parser.add_argument(
"--format",
choices=["csv", "json"],
default=None,
help="Output format (inferred from --output extension if not set)",
)
parser.add_argument(
"--batch-size",
type=int,
default=None,
help="Override per_core_batch_size (auto-detected from system check if omitted)",
)
parser.add_argument(
"--skip-check",
action="store_true",
help="Skip system preflight check (not recommended)",
)
args = parser.parse_args()
# Parse value columns
value_cols = None
if args.value_cols:
value_cols = [c.strip() for c in args.value_cols.split(",")]
# Determine output format
out_format = args.format
if not out_format:
out_format = "json" if args.output.endswith(".json") else "csv"
# 1. Preflight check
if not args.skip_check:
print("Running system preflight check...")
report = run_preflight()
batch_size = args.batch_size or report.get("recommended_batch_size", 32)
else:
print("⚠️ Skipping system check (--skip-check). Proceed with caution.")
batch_size = args.batch_size or 32
# 2. Load model
model = load_model(batch_size=batch_size)
# 3. Load CSV
df, cols, date_col = load_csv(args.input, args.date_col, value_cols)
# 4. Forecast
results = forecast_series(model, df, cols, args.horizon)
# 5. Write output
if out_format == "json":
write_json_output(results, args.output)
else:
write_csv_output(results, args.output, df, date_col, args.horizon)
print("\nDone! 🎉")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()