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feat(example): add working TimesFM forecast example with global temperature data

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- Add NOAA GISTEMP global temperature anomaly dataset (36 months, 2022-2024)
- Run TimesFM 1.0 PyTorch forecast for 2025 (12-month horizon)
- Generate fan chart visualization with 80%/90% confidence intervals
- Create comprehensive markdown report with findings and API notes

API Discovery:
- TimesFM 2.5 PyTorch checkpoint has file format issue (model.safetensors
  vs expected torch_model.ckpt)
- Working API uses TimesFmHparams + TimesFmCheckpoint + TimesFm() constructor
- Documented API in GitHub README differs from actual pip package

Includes:
- temperature_anomaly.csv (input data)
- forecast_output.csv (point forecast + quantiles)
- forecast_output.json (machine-readable output)
- forecast_visualization.png (LFS-tracked)
- run_forecast.py (reusable script)
- visualize_forecast.py (chart generation)
- run_example.sh (one-click runner)
- README.md (full report with findings)
This commit is contained in:
Clayton Young
2026-02-21 15:25:52 -05:00
parent 98670bcf47
commit c7c5bc21ff
9 changed files with 787 additions and 0 deletions
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scientific-skills/timesfm-forecasting/examples/global-temperature/forecast_output.csv Normal file
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date,point_forecast,q10,q20,q30,q40,q50,q60,q70,q80,q90,q99
2025-01-01,1.2593384,1.248188,1.140702,1.1880752,1.2137158,1.2394564,1.2593384,1.2767732,1.297132,1.32396,1.367888
2025-02-01,1.2856668,1.2773758,1.1406044,1.1960833,1.2322671,1.2593892,1.2856668,1.3110137,1.3400218,1.3751202,1.4253658
2025-03-01,1.2950127,1.2869918,1.126852,1.1876173,1.234988,1.2675052,1.2950127,1.328448,1.354729,1.4035482,1.4642649
2025-04-01,1.2207624,1.2084007,1.0352504,1.1041918,1.151865,1.1853008,1.2207624,1.256663,1.2898555,1.3310349,1.4016538
2025-05-01,1.1702554,1.153313,0.9691495,1.0431063,1.0932612,1.1276176,1.1702554,1.201966,1.2390311,1.2891905,1.3632389
2025-06-01,1.1455553,1.1275499,0.94203794,1.0110554,1.0658777,1.1061188,1.1455553,1.1806211,1.2180579,1.2702757,1.345366
2025-07-01,1.1702348,1.1510556,0.9503718,1.0347577,1.0847733,1.1287677,1.1702348,1.2114835,1.2482276,1.2997853,1.3807325
2025-08-01,1.2026825,1.1859496,0.9709255,1.0594383,1.1106675,1.1579902,1.2026825,1.2399211,1.2842004,1.3408126,1.419526
2025-09-01,1.1909748,1.1784849,0.95943713,1.0403702,1.103606,1.1511956,1.1909748,1.2390201,1.2832941,1.3354731,1.416972
2025-10-01,1.1490841,1.1264795,0.9079477,0.99529266,1.0548235,1.1052223,1.1490841,1.1897774,1.240414,1.2868769,1.3775467
2025-11-01,1.0804785,1.0624356,0.8361266,0.9259792,0.9882403,1.0386353,1.0804785,1.1281581,1.1759715,1.228377,1.3122478
2025-12-01,1.0613453,1.0366092,0.80220693,0.89521873,0.9593707,1.0152239,1.0613453,1.1032857,1.15315,1.216908,1.2959521
1 date point_forecast q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 q99
2 2025-01-01 1.2593384 1.248188 1.140702 1.1880752 1.2137158 1.2394564 1.2593384 1.2767732 1.297132 1.32396 1.367888
3 2025-02-01 1.2856668 1.2773758 1.1406044 1.1960833 1.2322671 1.2593892 1.2856668 1.3110137 1.3400218 1.3751202 1.4253658
4 2025-03-01 1.2950127 1.2869918 1.126852 1.1876173 1.234988 1.2675052 1.2950127 1.328448 1.354729 1.4035482 1.4642649
5 2025-04-01 1.2207624 1.2084007 1.0352504 1.1041918 1.151865 1.1853008 1.2207624 1.256663 1.2898555 1.3310349 1.4016538
6 2025-05-01 1.1702554 1.153313 0.9691495 1.0431063 1.0932612 1.1276176 1.1702554 1.201966 1.2390311 1.2891905 1.3632389
7 2025-06-01 1.1455553 1.1275499 0.94203794 1.0110554 1.0658777 1.1061188 1.1455553 1.1806211 1.2180579 1.2702757 1.345366
8 2025-07-01 1.1702348 1.1510556 0.9503718 1.0347577 1.0847733 1.1287677 1.1702348 1.2114835 1.2482276 1.2997853 1.3807325
9 2025-08-01 1.2026825 1.1859496 0.9709255 1.0594383 1.1106675 1.1579902 1.2026825 1.2399211 1.2842004 1.3408126 1.419526
10 2025-09-01 1.1909748 1.1784849 0.95943713 1.0403702 1.103606 1.1511956 1.1909748 1.2390201 1.2832941 1.3354731 1.416972
11 2025-10-01 1.1490841 1.1264795 0.9079477 0.99529266 1.0548235 1.1052223 1.1490841 1.1897774 1.240414 1.2868769 1.3775467
12 2025-11-01 1.0804785 1.0624356 0.8361266 0.9259792 0.9882403 1.0386353 1.0804785 1.1281581 1.1759715 1.228377 1.3122478
13 2025-12-01 1.0613453 1.0366092 0.80220693 0.89521873 0.9593707 1.0152239 1.0613453 1.1032857 1.15315 1.216908 1.2959521