mirror of
https://github.com/K-Dense-AI/claude-scientific-skills.git
synced 2026-03-27 07:09:27 +08:00
feat(timesfm): complete all three examples with quality docs
- anomaly-detection: full two-phase rewrite (context Z-score + forecast PI), 2-panel viz, Sep 2023 correctly flagged CRITICAL (z=+3.03) - covariates-forecasting: v3 rewrite with variable-shadowing bug fixed, 2x2 shared-axis viz showing actionable covariate decomposition, 108-row CSV with distinct per-store price arrays - global-temperature: output/ subfolder reorganization (all 6 output files moved, 5 scripts + shell script paths updated) - SKILL.md: added Examples table, Quality Checklist, Common Mistakes (8 items), Validation & Verification with regression assertions - .gitattributes already at repo root covering all binary types
This commit is contained in:
@@ -1,152 +1,448 @@
|
||||
{
|
||||
"method": "quantile_prediction_intervals",
|
||||
"description": "Anomaly detection via TimesFM quantile forecasts. 80% PI = q10\u2013q90 (CRITICAL if violated). 60% PI = q20\u2013q80 (WARNING if violated).",
|
||||
"context": "36 months of real NOAA temperature anomaly data (2022-2024)",
|
||||
"future": "12 synthetic months with 3 injected anomalies",
|
||||
"quantile_indices": {
|
||||
"q10": 1,
|
||||
"q20": 2,
|
||||
"q80": 8,
|
||||
"q90": 9
|
||||
"method": "two_phase",
|
||||
"context_method": "linear_detrend_zscore",
|
||||
"forecast_method": "quantile_prediction_intervals",
|
||||
"thresholds": {
|
||||
"critical_z": 3.0,
|
||||
"warning_z": 2.0,
|
||||
"pi_critical_pct": 80,
|
||||
"pi_warning_pct": 60
|
||||
},
|
||||
"summary": {
|
||||
"context_summary": {
|
||||
"total": 36,
|
||||
"critical": 1,
|
||||
"warning": 0,
|
||||
"normal": 35,
|
||||
"res_std": 0.11362
|
||||
},
|
||||
"forecast_summary": {
|
||||
"total": 12,
|
||||
"critical": 3,
|
||||
"critical": 4,
|
||||
"warning": 1,
|
||||
"normal": 8
|
||||
"normal": 7
|
||||
},
|
||||
"detections": [
|
||||
"context_detections": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-01",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2559,
|
||||
"date": "2022-01",
|
||||
"value": 0.89,
|
||||
"trend": 0.837,
|
||||
"residual": 0.053,
|
||||
"z_score": 0.467,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-02",
|
||||
"value": 0.89,
|
||||
"trend": 0.8514,
|
||||
"residual": 0.0386,
|
||||
"z_score": 0.34,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-03",
|
||||
"value": 1.02,
|
||||
"trend": 0.8658,
|
||||
"residual": 0.1542,
|
||||
"z_score": 1.357,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-04",
|
||||
"value": 0.88,
|
||||
"trend": 0.8803,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0003,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.002,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-05",
|
||||
"value": 0.85,
|
||||
"trend": 0.8947,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0447,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.394,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-06",
|
||||
"value": 0.88,
|
||||
"trend": 0.9092,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0292,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.257,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-07",
|
||||
"value": 0.88,
|
||||
"trend": 0.9236,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0436,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.384,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-08",
|
||||
"value": 0.9,
|
||||
"trend": 0.9381,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0381,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.335,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-09",
|
||||
"value": 0.88,
|
||||
"trend": 0.9525,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0725,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.638,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-10",
|
||||
"value": 0.95,
|
||||
"trend": 0.9669,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0169,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.149,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-11",
|
||||
"value": 0.77,
|
||||
"trend": 0.9814,
|
||||
"residual": -0.2114,
|
||||
"z_score": -1.86,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2022-12",
|
||||
"value": 0.78,
|
||||
"trend": 0.9958,
|
||||
"residual": -0.2158,
|
||||
"z_score": -1.9,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-01",
|
||||
"value": 0.87,
|
||||
"trend": 1.0103,
|
||||
"residual": -0.1403,
|
||||
"z_score": -1.235,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-02",
|
||||
"value": 0.98,
|
||||
"trend": 1.0247,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0447,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.394,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-03",
|
||||
"value": 1.21,
|
||||
"trend": 1.0392,
|
||||
"residual": 0.1708,
|
||||
"z_score": 1.503,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-04",
|
||||
"value": 1.0,
|
||||
"trend": 1.0536,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0536,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.472,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-05",
|
||||
"value": 0.94,
|
||||
"trend": 1.0681,
|
||||
"residual": -0.1281,
|
||||
"z_score": -1.127,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-06",
|
||||
"value": 1.08,
|
||||
"trend": 1.0825,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0025,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.022,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-07",
|
||||
"value": 1.18,
|
||||
"trend": 1.0969,
|
||||
"residual": 0.0831,
|
||||
"z_score": 0.731,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-08",
|
||||
"value": 1.24,
|
||||
"trend": 1.1114,
|
||||
"residual": 0.1286,
|
||||
"z_score": 1.132,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-09",
|
||||
"value": 1.47,
|
||||
"trend": 1.1258,
|
||||
"residual": 0.3442,
|
||||
"z_score": 3.029,
|
||||
"severity": "CRITICAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-10",
|
||||
"value": 1.32,
|
||||
"trend": 1.1403,
|
||||
"residual": 0.1797,
|
||||
"z_score": 1.582,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-11",
|
||||
"value": 1.18,
|
||||
"trend": 1.1547,
|
||||
"residual": 0.0253,
|
||||
"z_score": 0.222,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2023-12",
|
||||
"value": 1.16,
|
||||
"trend": 1.1692,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0092,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.081,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-01",
|
||||
"value": 1.22,
|
||||
"trend": 1.1836,
|
||||
"residual": 0.0364,
|
||||
"z_score": 0.32,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-02",
|
||||
"value": 1.35,
|
||||
"trend": 1.1981,
|
||||
"residual": 0.1519,
|
||||
"z_score": 1.337,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-03",
|
||||
"value": 1.34,
|
||||
"trend": 1.2125,
|
||||
"residual": 0.1275,
|
||||
"z_score": 1.122,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-04",
|
||||
"value": 1.26,
|
||||
"trend": 1.2269,
|
||||
"residual": 0.0331,
|
||||
"z_score": 0.291,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-05",
|
||||
"value": 1.15,
|
||||
"trend": 1.2414,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0914,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.804,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-06",
|
||||
"value": 1.2,
|
||||
"trend": 1.2558,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0558,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.491,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-07",
|
||||
"value": 1.24,
|
||||
"trend": 1.2703,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0303,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.266,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-08",
|
||||
"value": 1.3,
|
||||
"trend": 1.2847,
|
||||
"residual": 0.0153,
|
||||
"z_score": 0.135,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-09",
|
||||
"value": 1.28,
|
||||
"trend": 1.2992,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0192,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.169,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-10",
|
||||
"value": 1.27,
|
||||
"trend": 1.3136,
|
||||
"residual": -0.0436,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.384,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-11",
|
||||
"value": 1.22,
|
||||
"trend": 1.328,
|
||||
"residual": -0.108,
|
||||
"z_score": -0.951,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2024-12",
|
||||
"value": 1.2,
|
||||
"trend": 1.3425,
|
||||
"residual": -0.1425,
|
||||
"z_score": -1.254,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"forecast_detections": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-01",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2821,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.2593,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.1881,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.324,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 1.1407,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.3679,
|
||||
"q10": 1.1407,
|
||||
"q20": 1.1881,
|
||||
"q80": 1.324,
|
||||
"q90": 1.3679,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-02",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2372,
|
||||
"date": "2025-02",
|
||||
"actual": 1.1522,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.2857,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.1961,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.3751,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 1.1406,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.4254,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-03",
|
||||
"actual": 1.8017,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.295,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.1876,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.4035,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 1.1269,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.4643,
|
||||
"severity": "CRITICAL",
|
||||
"injected": true
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-04",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2648,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.2208,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.1042,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.331,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 1.0353,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.4017,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-05",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2245,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.1703,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.0431,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.2892,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 0.9691,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.3632,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-06",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2335,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.1456,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.0111,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.2703,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 0.942,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.3454,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-07",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2534,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.1702,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.0348,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.2998,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 0.9504,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.3807,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-08",
|
||||
"actual": 0.7517,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.2027,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.0594,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.3408,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 0.9709,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.4195,
|
||||
"severity": "CRITICAL",
|
||||
"injected": true
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-09",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2514,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.191,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 1.0404,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.3355,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 0.9594,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.417,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-10",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2398,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.1491,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 0.9953,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.2869,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 0.9079,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.3775,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-11",
|
||||
"actual": 1.7317,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.0805,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 0.926,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.2284,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 0.8361,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.3122,
|
||||
"severity": "CRITICAL",
|
||||
"injected": true
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"month": "2025-12",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2625,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.0613,
|
||||
"lower_60pi": 0.8952,
|
||||
"upper_60pi": 1.2169,
|
||||
"lower_80pi": 0.8022,
|
||||
"upper_80pi": 1.296,
|
||||
"q10": 1.1406,
|
||||
"q20": 1.1961,
|
||||
"q80": 1.3751,
|
||||
"q90": 1.4254,
|
||||
"severity": "WARNING",
|
||||
"injected": false
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-03",
|
||||
"actual": 1.3358,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.295,
|
||||
"q10": 1.1269,
|
||||
"q20": 1.1876,
|
||||
"q80": 1.4035,
|
||||
"q90": 1.4643,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-04",
|
||||
"actual": 2.0594,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.2208,
|
||||
"q10": 1.0353,
|
||||
"q20": 1.1042,
|
||||
"q80": 1.331,
|
||||
"q90": 1.4017,
|
||||
"severity": "CRITICAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": true
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-05",
|
||||
"actual": 1.0747,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.1703,
|
||||
"q10": 0.9691,
|
||||
"q20": 1.0431,
|
||||
"q80": 1.2892,
|
||||
"q90": 1.3632,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-06",
|
||||
"actual": 1.1442,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.1456,
|
||||
"q10": 0.942,
|
||||
"q20": 1.0111,
|
||||
"q80": 1.2703,
|
||||
"q90": 1.3454,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-07",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2917,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.1702,
|
||||
"q10": 0.9504,
|
||||
"q20": 1.0348,
|
||||
"q80": 1.2998,
|
||||
"q90": 1.3807,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-08",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2519,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.2027,
|
||||
"q10": 0.9709,
|
||||
"q20": 1.0594,
|
||||
"q80": 1.3408,
|
||||
"q90": 1.4195,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-09",
|
||||
"actual": 0.6364,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.191,
|
||||
"q10": 0.9594,
|
||||
"q20": 1.0404,
|
||||
"q80": 1.3355,
|
||||
"q90": 1.417,
|
||||
"severity": "CRITICAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": true
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-10",
|
||||
"actual": 1.2073,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.1491,
|
||||
"q10": 0.9079,
|
||||
"q20": 0.9953,
|
||||
"q80": 1.2869,
|
||||
"q90": 1.3775,
|
||||
"severity": "NORMAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-11",
|
||||
"actual": 1.3851,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.0805,
|
||||
"q10": 0.8361,
|
||||
"q20": 0.926,
|
||||
"q80": 1.2284,
|
||||
"q90": 1.3122,
|
||||
"severity": "CRITICAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"date": "2025-12",
|
||||
"actual": 1.8294,
|
||||
"forecast": 1.0613,
|
||||
"q10": 0.8022,
|
||||
"q20": 0.8952,
|
||||
"q80": 1.2169,
|
||||
"q90": 1.296,
|
||||
"severity": "CRITICAL",
|
||||
"was_injected": true
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user