Anomaly detection fixes:
- Fix critical quantile index bug: index 0 is mean not q10; correct indices are q10=1, q20=2, q80=8, q90=9
- Redesign test: use all 36 months as context, inject 3 synthetic anomalies into future
- Result: 3 CRITICAL detected (was 11/12 — caused by test-set leakage + wrong indices)
- Update severity labels: CRITICAL = outside 80% PI, WARNING = outside 60% PI
Covariates fixes:
- Fix variable-shadowing bug: inner dict comprehension overwrote outer loop store_id
causing all stores to get identical covariate arrays (store_A's price for everyone)
- Give each store a distinct price baseline (premium $12, standard $10, discount $7.50)
- Trim CONTEXT_LEN from 48 → 24 weeks; CSV now 108 rows (was 180)
- Add NOTE ON REAL DATA comment: temp file pattern for large external datasets
Both scripts regenerated with clean outputs.
- Created generate_html.py to embed JSON data directly in HTML
- No external fetch() needed - works when opened directly in browser
- File size: 149.5 KB (self-contained)
- Shows forecast horizon (12-36 months) in stats
- Each forecast now extends to 2025-12 regardless of historical data length
- Step 1 (12 points): forecasts 36 months ahead to 2025-12
- Step 25 (36 points): forecasts 12 months ahead to 2025-12
- GIF shows full forecast horizon at every animation step
- X-axis fixed to 2022-01 to 2025-12 (full data range)
- Y-axis fixed to 0.72°C to 1.52°C (full value range)
- Background shows all observed data (faded gray) + final forecast reference (faded red dashed)
- Foreground shows current step data (bright blue) + current forecast (bright red)
- GIF size reduced from 918KB to 659KB
Create an all-out demonstration showing how TimesFM forecasts evolve
as more historical data is added:
- generate_animation_data.py: Runs 25 incremental forecasts (12→36 points)
- interactive_forecast.html: Single-file HTML with Chart.js slider
- Play/Pause animation control
- Shows historical data, forecast, 80%/90% CIs, and actual future data
- Live stats: forecast mean, max, min, CI width
- generate_gif.py: Creates animated GIF for embedding in markdown
- forecast_animation.gif: 25-frame animation (896 KB)
Interactive features:
- Slider to manually step through forecast evolution
- Auto-play with 500ms per frame
- Shows how each additional data point changes the forecast
- Confidence intervals narrow as more data is added
- Change title from 'Above 1951-1980 Baseline' to clearer example description
- New title: 'TimesFM Zero-Shot Forecast Example / 36-month Temperature Anomaly → 12-month Forecast'
- Makes it clear this is a demonstration with limited input data
