{
  "method": "two_phase",
  "context_method": "linear_detrend_zscore",
  "forecast_method": "quantile_prediction_intervals",
  "thresholds": {
    "critical_z": 3.0,
    "warning_z": 2.0,
    "pi_critical_pct": 80,
    "pi_warning_pct": 60
  },
  "context_summary": {
    "total": 36,
    "critical": 1,
    "warning": 0,
    "normal": 35,
    "res_std": 0.11362
  },
  "forecast_summary": {
    "total": 12,
    "critical": 4,
    "warning": 1,
    "normal": 7
  },
  "context_detections": [
    {
      "date": "2022-01",
      "value": 0.89,
      "trend": 0.837,
      "residual": 0.053,
      "z_score": 0.467,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-02",
      "value": 0.89,
      "trend": 0.8514,
      "residual": 0.0386,
      "z_score": 0.34,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-03",
      "value": 1.02,
      "trend": 0.8658,
      "residual": 0.1542,
      "z_score": 1.357,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-04",
      "value": 0.88,
      "trend": 0.8803,
      "residual": -0.0003,
      "z_score": -0.002,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-05",
      "value": 0.85,
      "trend": 0.8947,
      "residual": -0.0447,
      "z_score": -0.394,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-06",
      "value": 0.88,
      "trend": 0.9092,
      "residual": -0.0292,
      "z_score": -0.257,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-07",
      "value": 0.88,
      "trend": 0.9236,
      "residual": -0.0436,
      "z_score": -0.384,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-08",
      "value": 0.9,
      "trend": 0.9381,
      "residual": -0.0381,
      "z_score": -0.335,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-09",
      "value": 0.88,
      "trend": 0.9525,
      "residual": -0.0725,
      "z_score": -0.638,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-10",
      "value": 0.95,
      "trend": 0.9669,
      "residual": -0.0169,
      "z_score": -0.149,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-11",
      "value": 0.77,
      "trend": 0.9814,
      "residual": -0.2114,
      "z_score": -1.86,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-12",
      "value": 0.78,
      "trend": 0.9958,
      "residual": -0.2158,
      "z_score": -1.9,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-01",
      "value": 0.87,
      "trend": 1.0103,
      "residual": -0.1403,
      "z_score": -1.235,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-02",
      "value": 0.98,
      "trend": 1.0247,
      "residual": -0.0447,
      "z_score": -0.394,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-03",
      "value": 1.21,
      "trend": 1.0392,
      "residual": 0.1708,
      "z_score": 1.503,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-04",
      "value": 1.0,
      "trend": 1.0536,
      "residual": -0.0536,
      "z_score": -0.472,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-05",
      "value": 0.94,
      "trend": 1.0681,
      "residual": -0.1281,
      "z_score": -1.127,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-06",
      "value": 1.08,
      "trend": 1.0825,
      "residual": -0.0025,
      "z_score": -0.022,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-07",
      "value": 1.18,
      "trend": 1.0969,
      "residual": 0.0831,
      "z_score": 0.731,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-08",
      "value": 1.24,
      "trend": 1.1114,
      "residual": 0.1286,
      "z_score": 1.132,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-09",
      "value": 1.47,
      "trend": 1.1258,
      "residual": 0.3442,
      "z_score": 3.029,
      "severity": "CRITICAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-10",
      "value": 1.32,
      "trend": 1.1403,
      "residual": 0.1797,
      "z_score": 1.582,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-11",
      "value": 1.18,
      "trend": 1.1547,
      "residual": 0.0253,
      "z_score": 0.222,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-12",
      "value": 1.16,
      "trend": 1.1692,
      "residual": -0.0092,
      "z_score": -0.081,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-01",
      "value": 1.22,
      "trend": 1.1836,
      "residual": 0.0364,
      "z_score": 0.32,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-02",
      "value": 1.35,
      "trend": 1.1981,
      "residual": 0.1519,
      "z_score": 1.337,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-03",
      "value": 1.34,
      "trend": 1.2125,
      "residual": 0.1275,
      "z_score": 1.122,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-04",
      "value": 1.26,
      "trend": 1.2269,
      "residual": 0.0331,
      "z_score": 0.291,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-05",
      "value": 1.15,
      "trend": 1.2414,
      "residual": -0.0914,
      "z_score": -0.804,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-06",
      "value": 1.2,
      "trend": 1.2558,
      "residual": -0.0558,
      "z_score": -0.491,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-07",
      "value": 1.24,
      "trend": 1.2703,
      "residual": -0.0303,
      "z_score": -0.266,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-08",
      "value": 1.3,
      "trend": 1.2847,
      "residual": 0.0153,
      "z_score": 0.135,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-09",
      "value": 1.28,
      "trend": 1.2992,
      "residual": -0.0192,
      "z_score": -0.169,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-10",
      "value": 1.27,
      "trend": 1.3136,
      "residual": -0.0436,
      "z_score": -0.384,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-11",
      "value": 1.22,
      "trend": 1.328,
      "residual": -0.108,
      "z_score": -0.951,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-12",
      "value": 1.2,
      "trend": 1.3425,
      "residual": -0.1425,
      "z_score": -1.254,
      "severity": "NORMAL"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_detections": [
    {
      "date": "2025-01",
      "actual": 1.2821,
      "forecast": 1.2593,
      "q10": 1.1407,
      "q20": 1.1881,
      "q80": 1.324,
      "q90": 1.3679,
      "severity": "NORMAL",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-02",
      "actual": 1.1522,
      "forecast": 1.2857,
      "q10": 1.1406,
      "q20": 1.1961,
      "q80": 1.3751,
      "q90": 1.4254,
      "severity": "WARNING",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-03",
      "actual": 1.3358,
      "forecast": 1.295,
      "q10": 1.1269,
      "q20": 1.1876,
      "q80": 1.4035,
      "q90": 1.4643,
      "severity": "NORMAL",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-04",
      "actual": 2.0594,
      "forecast": 1.2208,
      "q10": 1.0353,
      "q20": 1.1042,
      "q80": 1.331,
      "q90": 1.4017,
      "severity": "CRITICAL",
      "was_injected": true
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-05",
      "actual": 1.0747,
      "forecast": 1.1703,
      "q10": 0.9691,
      "q20": 1.0431,
      "q80": 1.2892,
      "q90": 1.3632,
      "severity": "NORMAL",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-06",
      "actual": 1.1442,
      "forecast": 1.1456,
      "q10": 0.942,
      "q20": 1.0111,
      "q80": 1.2703,
      "q90": 1.3454,
      "severity": "NORMAL",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-07",
      "actual": 1.2917,
      "forecast": 1.1702,
      "q10": 0.9504,
      "q20": 1.0348,
      "q80": 1.2998,
      "q90": 1.3807,
      "severity": "NORMAL",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-08",
      "actual": 1.2519,
      "forecast": 1.2027,
      "q10": 0.9709,
      "q20": 1.0594,
      "q80": 1.3408,
      "q90": 1.4195,
      "severity": "NORMAL",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-09",
      "actual": 0.6364,
      "forecast": 1.191,
      "q10": 0.9594,
      "q20": 1.0404,
      "q80": 1.3355,
      "q90": 1.417,
      "severity": "CRITICAL",
      "was_injected": true
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-10",
      "actual": 1.2073,
      "forecast": 1.1491,
      "q10": 0.9079,
      "q20": 0.9953,
      "q80": 1.2869,
      "q90": 1.3775,
      "severity": "NORMAL",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-11",
      "actual": 1.3851,
      "forecast": 1.0805,
      "q10": 0.8361,
      "q20": 0.926,
      "q80": 1.2284,
      "q90": 1.3122,
      "severity": "CRITICAL",
      "was_injected": false
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-12",
      "actual": 1.8294,
      "forecast": 1.0613,
      "q10": 0.8022,
      "q20": 0.8952,
      "q80": 1.2169,
      "q90": 1.296,
      "severity": "CRITICAL",
      "was_injected": true
    }
  ]
}