claude-scientific-skills/scientific-skills/what-if-oracle/references/scenario-templates.md

What-If Oracle — Scenario Templates

Reference guide for domain-specific scenario analysis configurations.

Startup / Business Decision

Variables to test:

• Market entry timing
• Pricing strategy
• Partnership terms
• Hiring decisions
• Funding rounds

Branch emphasis: Likely Case + Contrarian + Second Order Key tension: Speed vs. thoroughness — startups can't afford to analyze forever

Template prompt:

"What if we [specific action] in [timeframe]? Our current state: [revenue, team size, runway]. Key constraint: [the limiting factor]."

Technology Architecture

Variables to test:

• Tech stack choice
• Build vs. buy
• Scaling approach
• Security model
• Migration path

Branch emphasis: Worst Case + Wild Card + Second Order Key tension: Engineering elegance vs. shipping speed

Template prompt:

"What if we choose [technology/approach] for [system]? Current architecture: [brief description]. Team capability: [relevant skills]. Timeline: [deadline]."

Investment / Financial

Variables to test:

• Market conditions
• Valuation scenarios
• Exit timing
• Capital allocation
• Revenue model changes

Branch emphasis: All 6 branches — money decisions deserve full analysis Key tension: Risk tolerance vs. opportunity cost

Template prompt:

"What if [market condition / financial event] happens? Our exposure: [amount/percentage]. Current position: [financial state]. Time horizon: [investment period]."

Career / Personal

Variables to test:

• Job change
• Skill development path
• Relocation
• Relationship decisions
• Health changes

Branch emphasis: Likely Case + Best Case + Contrarian Key tension: Security vs. growth — comfort zone vs. expansion

Template prompt:

"What if I [personal decision]? My current situation: [brief]. What I value most: [1-3 values]. What I'm afraid of: [honest answer]."

Geopolitical / Macro

Variables to test:

• Policy changes
• Regulatory shifts
• Market disruptions
• Technology breakthroughs
• Social movements

Branch emphasis: Wild Card + Second Order + Contrarian Key tension: Local impact vs. systemic effects

Template prompt:

"What if [geopolitical event] happens? My exposure: [how it affects me/my organization]. Time horizon: [relevant period]."

Crisis Response

Variables to test:

• Severity escalation
• Communication strategy
• Resource allocation
• Recovery timeline
• Reputation impact

Branch emphasis: Worst Case (detailed) + Likely Case + Second Order Key tension: Immediate triage vs. root cause resolution

Template prompt:

"We're facing [crisis/incident]. Current impact: [what's broken]. Stakeholders affected: [who]. Resources available: [what we can deploy]. What if [specific escalation scenario]?"

The Recursive Template

For complex, multi-layered analysis:

ROUND 1: "What if X?"
  → Identify the most likely branch (α)

ROUND 2: "Given α is happening, what if Y?"
  → Identify the most likely sub-branch

ROUND 3: "Given α+Y, what if Z?"
  → Map the deepest consequences

Each round narrows the possibility space while deepening understanding.
Maximum recommended depth: 3 rounds.

Probability Calibration Guide

When assigning probabilities to branches:

Confidence Level	Probability Range	Evidence Required
Very High	>80%	Strong historical precedent + current data alignment
High	60-80%	Multiple converging signals, some historical support
Medium	30-60%	Mixed signals, could go either way
Low	10-30%	Plausible but requires several things to go a specific way
Very Low	<10%	Black swan territory — possible but unlikely

Rule: All branch probabilities in a single analysis should sum to approximately 100%. If they don't, there's a missing branch.