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Three research-backed cognitive science skills: - consciousness-council: 12-archetype Mind Council deliberation for structured multi-perspective analysis - dhdna-profiler: cognitive fingerprinting across 12 dimensions (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18736629) - what-if-oracle: multi-branch scenario analysis with probability weighting (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18736841) Each includes reference documentation. All MIT licensed. Source: https://github.com/ashrafkahoush-ux/Claude-consciousness-skills
138 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
138 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
# What-If Oracle — Scenario Templates
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Reference guide for domain-specific scenario analysis configurations.
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## Startup / Business Decision
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**Variables to test:**
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- Market entry timing
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- Pricing strategy
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- Partnership terms
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- Hiring decisions
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- Funding rounds
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**Branch emphasis:** Likely Case + Contrarian + Second Order
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**Key tension:** Speed vs. thoroughness — startups can't afford to analyze forever
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**Template prompt:**
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> "What if we [specific action] in [timeframe]? Our current state: [revenue, team size, runway]. Key constraint: [the limiting factor]."
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## Technology Architecture
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**Variables to test:**
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- Tech stack choice
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- Build vs. buy
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- Scaling approach
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- Security model
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- Migration path
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**Branch emphasis:** Worst Case + Wild Card + Second Order
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**Key tension:** Engineering elegance vs. shipping speed
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**Template prompt:**
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> "What if we choose [technology/approach] for [system]? Current architecture: [brief description]. Team capability: [relevant skills]. Timeline: [deadline]."
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## Investment / Financial
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**Variables to test:**
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- Market conditions
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- Valuation scenarios
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- Exit timing
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- Capital allocation
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- Revenue model changes
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**Branch emphasis:** All 6 branches — money decisions deserve full analysis
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**Key tension:** Risk tolerance vs. opportunity cost
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**Template prompt:**
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> "What if [market condition / financial event] happens? Our exposure: [amount/percentage]. Current position: [financial state]. Time horizon: [investment period]."
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## Career / Personal
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**Variables to test:**
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- Job change
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- Skill development path
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- Relocation
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- Relationship decisions
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- Health changes
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**Branch emphasis:** Likely Case + Best Case + Contrarian
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**Key tension:** Security vs. growth — comfort zone vs. expansion
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**Template prompt:**
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> "What if I [personal decision]? My current situation: [brief]. What I value most: [1-3 values]. What I'm afraid of: [honest answer]."
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## Geopolitical / Macro
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**Variables to test:**
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- Policy changes
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- Regulatory shifts
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- Market disruptions
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- Technology breakthroughs
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- Social movements
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**Branch emphasis:** Wild Card + Second Order + Contrarian
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**Key tension:** Local impact vs. systemic effects
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**Template prompt:**
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> "What if [geopolitical event] happens? My exposure: [how it affects me/my organization]. Time horizon: [relevant period]."
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## Crisis Response
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**Variables to test:**
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- Severity escalation
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- Communication strategy
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- Resource allocation
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- Recovery timeline
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- Reputation impact
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**Branch emphasis:** Worst Case (detailed) + Likely Case + Second Order
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**Key tension:** Immediate triage vs. root cause resolution
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**Template prompt:**
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> "We're facing [crisis/incident]. Current impact: [what's broken]. Stakeholders affected: [who]. Resources available: [what we can deploy]. What if [specific escalation scenario]?"
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## The Recursive Template
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For complex, multi-layered analysis:
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```
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ROUND 1: "What if X?"
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→ Identify the most likely branch (α)
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ROUND 2: "Given α is happening, what if Y?"
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→ Identify the most likely sub-branch
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ROUND 3: "Given α+Y, what if Z?"
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→ Map the deepest consequences
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Each round narrows the possibility space while deepening understanding.
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Maximum recommended depth: 3 rounds.
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```
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## Probability Calibration Guide
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When assigning probabilities to branches:
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| Confidence Level | Probability Range | Evidence Required |
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| ---------------- | ----------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------- |
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| **Very High** | >80% | Strong historical precedent + current data alignment |
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| **High** | 60-80% | Multiple converging signals, some historical support |
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| **Medium** | 30-60% | Mixed signals, could go either way |
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| **Low** | 10-30% | Plausible but requires several things to go a specific way |
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| **Very Low** | <10% | Black swan territory — possible but unlikely |
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**Rule:** All branch probabilities in a single analysis should sum to approximately 100%. If they don't, there's a missing branch.
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